Improving the Prediction of Land Surface Temperature Using Hyperparameter-Tuned Machine Learning Algorithms

Abstract

Land surface temperature (LST) is a critical variable for understanding energy exchanges and water balance at the Earth’s surface, as well as for calculating turbulent heat flux and long-wave radiation at the surface–atmosphere interface. Remote sensing techniques, particularly using satellite platforms like Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS and Sentinel-2A, have facilitated detailed LST mapping. Sentinel-2 offers high spatial and temporal resolution multispectral data, but it lacks thermal infrared bands, which Landsat 8 can provide a 30 m resolution with less frequent revisits compared to Sentinel-2. This study employs Sentinel-2 spectral indices as independent variables and Landsat 8-derived LST data as the target variable within a machine-learning framework, enabling LST prediction at a 10 m resolution. This method applies grid search-based hyperparameter-tuned machine learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and k-Nearest Neighbours (kNN)—to model complex nonlinear relationships between the spectral indices (NDVI, NDWI, NDBI, and BSI) and LST. Grid search, combined with cross-validation, enhanced the model’s prediction accuracy for both pre- and post-monsoon seasons. This approach surpasses earlier methods that either employed untuned models or failed to integrate Sentinel-2 data. This study demonstrates that capturing urban thermal dynamics at fine spatial and temporal scales, combined with tuned machine learning models, can enhance the capability of urban heat island monitoring, climate adaptation planning, and sustainable environmental management models. © 2025 by the authors.