System modeling for forecasting of diabetes prevalence

Abstract

The computer simulation models can help understanding the progression of a chronic disease like diabetes. These models allow researchers and decision makers to forecast disease progression and resource required for managing it. The simulation tools presently used for planning and evaluating the health policy are inadequate for capturing the dynamic complexity of chronic disease involving the large delays between causes and health consequences. The paper develops and uses system dynamics for diabetes system modeling. The system dynamics approach is able to address the complexity of the chronic disease like diabetes. The study further forecasts the prevalence of diabetes by the year 2030, using the case of an ancient city of Varanasi. © 2018, Indian Journal of Public Health Research and Development. All rights reserved.