Geospatial analysis of unplanned urbanization: impact on land surface temperature and habitat suitability in Cuttack, India

Abstract

Unplanned urbanization causes an increase in land surface temperature (LST) and adversely affects the climate and environment within cities. Cuttack City, India, is experiencing rapid urbanization at an alarming rate, facing particular environmental challenges and hosting critical ecosystems that require protection. This study uses the Urban Growth Suitability Index (UGSI) to determine which parts of the city are Suitable and which are unsuitable for habitation based on the geographic distribution of heat vulnerability surrounding Cuttack City from 1990 to 2020. Using a mono window method, the LST for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 is derived from the Landsat 5, Landsat 7, and Landsat 8 satellite data. A simple linear regression model has been used to establish a trend in the relationship between LST and land use/land cover (LULC), similar to UGSI with LST. Finally, the most Suitable and Unsuitable regions for habitation in Cuttack City are marked using UGSI. The findings indicate that the highest temperature in the city was 32.07 °C in 1990 and increased to 38.67 °C in 2020. This is due to the decrease in city vegetation area by 51.39% and the expansion of the urban area by 58.19%. The core region of the city shows higher temperatures than the urban fringes, where vegetation cover is scanty or has no greenery. Out of 59 administrative wards (Municipal administrative regions) in Cuttack City, 27 experienced acute temperatures due to sparse vegetation cover and an intense built environment. A total area of 15.99 km2 of Cuttack City facing this heat vulnerability accounts for 19.61% of the total City area, which is highly unsuitable for habitation, and 10.77 km2 of Cuttack City, which accounts for only 13.21% of the city area are Suitable for habitation. This study will help city planners by guiding actions to protect residents from the adverse effects of extreme heat. By combining thermal and land use analyses with the UGSI framework, this study offers a novel approach to spatially mapping heat vulnerability and urban growth suitability, enhancing urban planning strategies in rapidly urbanizing regions. However, the lack of high-resolution satellite data and the exclusion of socio-economic factors highlight the need for further research. Integrating finer-scale data could offer more robust insights for urban sustainability planning. © The Author(s) 2025.